Deposit runs have led to the collapse of three U.S. banks this year, but another concern is building on the horizon. Commercial real estate is the area most likely to cause problems for lenders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told analysts Monday. «There's always an off-sides,» Dimon said in a question-and-answer session during his bank's investor conference. «The off-sides in this case will probably be real estate.
It'll be certain locations, certain office properties, certain construction loans. It could be very isolated; it won't be every bank.» U.S.
banks have experienced historically low loan defaults over the last few years due to low interest rates and the flood of stimulus money unleashed during the Covid-19 pandemic.
But the Federal Reserve has hiked rates to fight inflation, which has changed the landscape. Commercial buildings in some markets, including tech-centric San Francisco, may take a hit as remote workers are reluctant to return to offices. «There will be a credit cycle.
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